Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Guesstimations: Super Bowl XLVII - Conclusions

The final score:

Teams Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 F
Baltimore Ravens 7 14 7 6 34
San Francisco 49ers 3 3 17 8 31

Both teams scored 10 points over my prediction, but my point spread holds. Even in hindsight, betting on a 3.5 - 4.5 points to either teams would have been extremely tricky.

The 108 yard return touchdown in the third quarter was unexpected. Due to the unexpected lack of offense from 49ers, this gave Ravens more time to score. This can explain for the extra 10 points.

The breakdown of the Ravens after the blackout which allowed 49ers 17 points in 5 minutes increased the expected output of the 49ers score. Plus, there was additional 2 points due to the Ravens voluntarily taking the safety to burn more time. This would explain the extra 9 points of the 49ers.

In conclusion, there were some sudden spurts of scoring that I did not account for even though the initial numbers were very arbitrary. This poses an interesting question if someone has a correctly guessed scores or spreads for a long history through pure "guesstimations" would have some scientific explanation.

Reference:
http://douglastclee.blogspot.com/2013/01/super-bowl-xlvii-predictions.html
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2013020300/2012/POST22/ravens@49ers#menu=highlights&tab=recap