Thursday, November 3, 2022

Scammish: Magic the Gathering Arena Mobile App RNG (MtGA)

This may be more broken RNG than it is a scam, although according to other netizen's anecdotes could be scammish favoring P2W. P2W is too difficult for me to analyze. I do not have any suspicions of it but I do not think I could tell. Definitely, there are players with cards that completely trump any of my decks but it is not like those cards are inaccessible to me... and I can see F2P players potentially grinding to have those cards. Those decks are pretty rare to play against, and I suppose I am fine with it once in a while. It is kind of cool to see some rarer cards. 


A mono-color red deck with 25 lands of a 60 card deck
  • 80% of my starting hands have two lands.
    • With more than 33% of my deck being land, I should on average 2-3 two lands on equal ratios
    • On very rare occasions I have one land. Maybe once in a hundred games (~about once a week while playing around 30 games a day)
  • Many of my starting hands that more than two lands come only after multiple losses
  • Several hands where I have all the same non-land cards
    • several games where opponent has all 4 of the same non-land cards within 3-5 rounds
    • For poker fans, the odds of getting a four of a kind 0.02% chance in 5 cards and 0.1% chance in 7 cards. So the odds of getting all four with a 60 card deck vs 52 card deck is lower. 
  • Each day, I may get what seems like two normal games where the opponent and I get a normal distribution of lands
  • Majority of games, the opponent always has the right amount of lands and correct land to play multi-color decks
    • I have faced several multi-color decks that have been able to get play lands each round and has one of each color to play very rare legend cards at exactly five rounds while I almost always struggle to get more than two of a single color.
  • I have faced several games where I go on a drought pulling 10+ cards multiple times
    • With 33% lands, 5 non-land cards in a row would be a 13.5% chance.
  • I have also faced several games where I get 10+ lands within the first 20 cards
    • I get nearly half my lands after 13 pulls which typically starts with 2 lands
    • With 33% lands, 5 land cards in a row would be 0.3% and 7 in a row would be 0.04%
    • I have also played games where I draw 6-8 consecutive lands
  • Opponent always seem to have land. On very, very, very rare case I will see an opponent have any sort of drought. I have several games with only 2-3 lands the entire game. My opponents always have at least 4, and reach 8 lands on a very regular basis and always has spells.
    • Opponent very rarely has land drought. I have maybe seen this 5 times after hundreds of games. Maybe once a day, I'll have
  • Deck contains about 6 cards pertaining to creating creatures or creature spells. On many occasions, I will get all creature spells at the start of the game. 


Occasionally, I play multiple colors
  • There have been many games where I would get 3 lands of one type and 4 cards of the other type. For example, there have been several games I would get 3 plains with 4 green spells or 3 forests with 4 white spells
    • This is also a good number of games when only looking at only starting with 3 land hands which in itself is already rare
  • With nearly half the deck with lands (28 lands in a 60 card deck), majority of the time I only see two lands.
  • Not only is two lands the norm, several times I will not see another land for another 5 or 6 cards.
    • Many of the times I go on a drought, I also face very low odd decks where they run 3-5 colors. And they have always get the lands that they need while I barely get two colors on equal frequency as my opponents.

Matchups
  • I am always able to find opponents at any time of day. With absolutely no evidence, I suspect most of my opponents are not real players (ie bots, employees, not actual random people, etc).

EDIT 2011-11-14

After this post, my land distributions seem to have improved a bit. I will have about 3-4 lands after 20 cards. This at least is playable and have been able to win on rare occasions. 

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