Well, the results were surprising given all the news, rumors, and other opinions. This super bowl was expected to be close yet ended so lop-sided. The closest opinion was from someone saying that defense has won majority of the super bowl matchups.
My prediction of 37-27 (Denver) was crushed by the 43-8 (Seahawks).
Showing posts with label super bowl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label super bowl. Show all posts
Monday, February 3, 2014
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
Guesstimations: Super Bowl XLVIII - Predictions
Prediction: 37 - 27, Broncos
I watched only 1 game this season, NY Jets vs New Orleans Saints... so no help there. I just glanced at the average points scored and scored against. Here's a prediction from another site, Denver Broncos 1.5 points over Seattle Seahawks.
Reference
http://nfl.si.com/2014/01/20/super-bowl-xlviii-odds-denver-broncos-seattle-seahawks/
I watched only 1 game this season, NY Jets vs New Orleans Saints... so no help there. I just glanced at the average points scored and scored against. Here's a prediction from another site, Denver Broncos 1.5 points over Seattle Seahawks.
Reference
http://nfl.si.com/2014/01/20/super-bowl-xlviii-odds-denver-broncos-seattle-seahawks/
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Guesstimations: Super Bowl XLVII - Conclusions
The final score:
Both teams scored 10 points over my prediction, but my point spread holds. Even in hindsight, betting on a 3.5 - 4.5 points to either teams would have been extremely tricky.
The 108 yard return touchdown in the third quarter was unexpected. Due to the unexpected lack of offense from 49ers, this gave Ravens more time to score. This can explain for the extra 10 points.
The breakdown of the Ravens after the blackout which allowed 49ers 17 points in 5 minutes increased the expected output of the 49ers score. Plus, there was additional 2 points due to the Ravens voluntarily taking the safety to burn more time. This would explain the extra 9 points of the 49ers.
In conclusion, there were some sudden spurts of scoring that I did not account for even though the initial numbers were very arbitrary. This poses an interesting question if someone has a correctly guessed scores or spreads for a long history through pure "guesstimations" would have some scientific explanation.
Reference:
http://douglastclee.blogspot.com/2013/01/super-bowl-xlvii-predictions.html
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2013020300/2012/POST22/ravens@49ers#menu=highlights&tab=recap
| Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | F |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 34 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 3 | 17 | 8 | 31 |
Both teams scored 10 points over my prediction, but my point spread holds. Even in hindsight, betting on a 3.5 - 4.5 points to either teams would have been extremely tricky.
The 108 yard return touchdown in the third quarter was unexpected. Due to the unexpected lack of offense from 49ers, this gave Ravens more time to score. This can explain for the extra 10 points.
The breakdown of the Ravens after the blackout which allowed 49ers 17 points in 5 minutes increased the expected output of the 49ers score. Plus, there was additional 2 points due to the Ravens voluntarily taking the safety to burn more time. This would explain the extra 9 points of the 49ers.
In conclusion, there were some sudden spurts of scoring that I did not account for even though the initial numbers were very arbitrary. This poses an interesting question if someone has a correctly guessed scores or spreads for a long history through pure "guesstimations" would have some scientific explanation.
Reference:
http://douglastclee.blogspot.com/2013/01/super-bowl-xlvii-predictions.html
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2013020300/2012/POST22/ravens@49ers#menu=highlights&tab=recap
Friday, February 1, 2013
Guesstimations: Super Bowl XLVII - Predictions
I wonder how casinos creates the odds to sports games. This year for the Super Bowl, the most popular spread is the San Francisco 49ers 4.5 points over Baltimore Ravens. Points prediction seems pretty high with at least 5 touchdowns between both teams.
It would have been nice to collect some of the season data to create a more scientific prediction myself. But just from watching the last two games, my gut guess would be Ravens, 24-21.
Recommended:
http://douglastclee.blogspot.com/2013/02/guesstimations-super-bowl-xlvii.html
Recommended:
http://douglastclee.blogspot.com/2013/02/guesstimations-super-bowl-xlvii.html
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